Bloodied but Not Broken, This Dividend Giant May Be the Comeback Story of 2026

UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) has faced significant challenges in 2025.

From a rare earnings miss to a DOJ investigation and a sudden CEO exit, the headlines haven’t been kind.

The stock has cratered over 40% year-to-date, recently settling around $302, down from its 52-week high of over $630. At first glance, it appears to be a company in crisis.

But long-term investors may want to take a second look.

With a P/E ratio of just 12.6, a 2.93% dividend yield, and guidance expected to return in July, UNH now trades at levels not seen in over five years.

If this isn’t the textbook definition of a beat-up blue chip, we don’t know what is.

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Why the Selloff May Be Overdone

The pain began when UnitedHealth reported its first earnings miss since 2008, posting EPS of $7.20 versus the expected $7.30.

Then came the perfect storm: CEO Brian Thompson’s tragic and shocking death, a DOJ investigation into Medicare billing practices, guidance withdrawal, and rising costs in its Medicare Advantage and Optum units.

That’s a lot of bad news, but it’s also now well-priced.

Analysts and investors alike have spent the last quarter lowering expectations. And now, the bar is at its historically low point.

The company is set to reissue 2025 guidance alongside its Q2 earnings on July 29, with returning CEO Stephen Hemsley vowing a more “prudent” forecast.

The buy side is already pricing in $20 in EPS for 2025, which is well below the prior consensus of $22.50.

Here’s the thing. Even if those estimates hold, UNH is trading at just 15 times forward earnings, well below its 10-year average of 20–22 times.

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Core Strengths Still Intact

Despite the negative press, UnitedHealth remains a dominant force in the healthcare industry.

It is the largest healthcare company in the U.S. by revenue, serving more than 50 million Americans across insurance, pharmacy benefits, healthcare delivery, and technology services.

Few companies have a more entrenched position in a sector this essential.

And let’s be clear: the fundamentals are far from broken.

• UNH has increased its dividend for 14 straight years, including a 14% hike last quarter.

• The company’s quarterly payout of $2.21 per share equates to a forward yield of nearly 3%.

• The dividend is well-supported, with a payout ratio of just ~37%, leaving ample room for future increases.

• Its cash flow profile remains robust, generating tens of billions of dollars annually, even in a challenging year.

Meanwhile, structural tailwinds remain in place.

As the population ages, demand for Medicare Advantage and integrated health solutions is expected to continue growing. UNH’s scale, network, and infrastructure make it hard to compete with, and even harder to replace.

The Optum platform, which includes pharmacy services, healthcare IT, and physician practices, is also a long-term growth engine.

Though recent margins have been under pressure, Optum still provides strategic diversification that many pure insurers lack.

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Analyst Sentiment: Cautious, But Still Constructive

UBS’s AJ Rice recently lowered his price target from $400 to $385 but maintained a Buy rating, citing 27% upside from current levels.

He believes UNH is resetting expectations and positioning itself to under-promise and over-deliver in the coming quarters.

Street consensus remains broadly bullish:

• 18 Buy ratings

• 7 Holds

• 1 Sell

• Average price target: $361.91, implying ~20% upside from today’s levels

Many view this as a classic reset and recovery story, especially with defensive sectors like healthcare expected to outperform amid macroeconomic volatility.

Risks Worth Keeping in Mind

Of course, this isn’t a “set it and forget it” stock at the moment. Here’s what to monitor:

• DOJ findings on Medicare Advantage billing practices

• Margin pressure from higher-than-expected costs in Optum and government programs

• Slower commercial enrollment and risk of pricing missteps in the exchange market

• Volatility around July’s new guidance. Expect conservative language

Action (Bear Case): How to Stay Smart

If you're wary of near-term headlines, consider scaling into UNH gradually or pairing it with more defensive dividend payers, such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) or a healthcare dividend ETF (like VHT).

That helps soften the volatility without abandoning the opportunity.

You could also use a covered call strategy to generate additional yield while waiting for the stock to recover.

Action Plan: Income Now, Rebound Later

• Consider initiating a position between $290–$310

• Look for July’s Q2 earnings and updated guidance as a near-term inflection point

• Monitor margin commentary around Medicare Advantage and Optum

• Watch trading volume into July 29, expectations are extremely low, which could set up a surprise beat or relief rally

For long-term investors, this may be one of the better entry points into a defensive compounder we’ve seen in years.

A Blue Chip on the Clearance Rack

UnitedHealth has had a year that most companies would rather forget. But the fundamentals haven’t collapsed.

They’ve been bruised. With expectations reset, a dividend near 3%, and potential for long-term recovery, this could be a chance to buy one of the most reliable healthcare stocks at a price we might not see again.

If the company continues to do what it has done for the past two decades, cut through noise, optimize its operations, and execute steadily, shareholders today may look back on this as the entry point that changed everything.