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Cold Storage King’s Fat Yield Makes the Stock a Bargain

Americold Realty Trust (NYSE: COLD) is behind the scenes of many of your daily consumables, from medications and vaccines to standard grocery store fare, such as strawberries and ice cream.

Better yet, the cold storage titan has a juicy 5.4% dividend yield that shines even in the historically higher-yielding REIT sector. 

Trading at a substantial discount to its $31 fair value, the current sub-$20 price is a screaming deal, even after a rough first quarter in 2025. 

With prime warehouses and a consolidation play, Americold’s poised to dominate the $20 billion cold storage market, dishing out steady cash for income-hungry investors.

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Cold Storage Boom Fuels Food Supply Chains

Cold storage makes off-season fruits and veggies available nationally, among other key logistical tasks, and Americold’s riding a red-hot demand wave. 

The global cold storage market, worth $150 billion, is growing 8% a year through 2030 as Americans eat 2% more food annually.

With 96% of perishables passing through these icy vaults, the need’s undeniable. 

Urbanization, with 85% of folks now city-dwellers, and a 10% surge in organic food sales, cranks up demand for warehouses near metro hubs.

Even as inflation has Americans pinching their wallets, food’s a gotta-have-it staple, shielding Americold from the worst. 

Private equity’s tossing $5 billion into new facilities, risking oversupply, but Americold’s prime spots in Chicago and L.A. keep it ahead.

The REIT sector’s 5% yearly growth through 2030, as per NAREIT, fuels Americold’s long-term prospects.

Action: Grab shares to cash in on food chain resilience. Watch 2025 consumer spending and new warehouse builds.

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Operational Overview and Recent Earnings

Americold’s strength comes from its network of 250 frost facilities, chilling everything from berries to biologics.

These facilities, mostly in North America, generate 90% of revenue from rent and storage, with the rest from trucking and managing third-party sites. 

To be fair, Q1 2025 hit a sour note, with adjusted funds from operations slipping 9% to $0.34 per share, as high inventory from last year and soft food volumes took a toll.

Core EBITDA, a steadier gauge, fell 5% to $140 million, per a May 8, 2025, update. 

Same-store occupancy dropped 4% to 76.6%, dragging rent revenue down 4% to $340 million, while facility costs crept up 2%, slicing net operating income by 6%.

Management slashed 2025 AFFO guidance to $1.42-$1.52, a 5% cut, blaming inflation and a wobbly economy. 

Yet, a 5% dividend hike to $0.23 quarterly kept free cash flow humming at $50 million, flat from last year, signaling resilience amid the chill.

Action: Track Q2 2025 for occupancy rebound and service margin gains (low volumes could keep the pressure on). Monitor development yields and client retention in 2025 filings.

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Dividend Profile

Americold’s dividend is a cash machine, pumping out $0.23 quarterly, or $0.92 yearly, for a mouthwatering 5.4% yield at today’s pricing.

A 5% hike in 2025, riding a wave of mid-single-digit raises, proves it’s built to last. 

With a 60% payout ratio backed by $200 million in annual AFFO, and Q1’s $50 million free cash flow holding steady, the dividend’s rock-solid.

Occupancy gains and cost cuts could fuel 4-6% hikes, making Americold a dream for income chasers.

Action: Track 2025 AFFO for payout boost signals.

Bear Case

  • Trouble’s brewing if tariffs crush spending, potentially slashing volume. 

  • Private-label warehouses could lure tenants away. 

  • Labor shortages might jack costs, pinching margins. 

  • Private equity’s building spree risks rent pressure from oversupply.

  • Big players like Conagra (NYSE: CAG) going solo could gut demand. 

  • eCommerce’s sluggish grocery shift might cap growth despite high expectations for the sector.

Action: Hedge with big REITs like Prologis (NYSE: PLD) and industrial ETFs to dodge tariff and supply risks. 

Americold’s High-Yield Bargain Sparks Steady Cash

Americold’s Q1 2025 took a hit, with a 9% AFFO drop and 76% occupancy exposing its soft spots. Yet, trading below fair value, it’s a steal screaming for attention. 

A 3% NOI growth forecast, fueled by $20 billion in U.S. cold storage demand and 8% development yields, taps a $150 billion global market.

With $920 million in liquidity and $3.4 billion debt at 5 times EBITDA, Americold’s got the muscle to push service margins to 12% by 2029. 

A 5.4% yield and 49% revenue from top clients like Unilever (NYSE: UL) lock in cash flow.

Overcapacity could sting if new builds flood the market, but Americold’s scale and savvy keep it ahead.

That’s all for today’s edition of the Dividend Brief.

Thanks for reading, and if you have any feedback or dividend stocks you want me to take a look at, just reply to this email!

—Noah Zelvis
DividendBrief.com